The Lone Star Memory Method

One track. Every horse remembered.

National tip sites cover dozens of tracks. We cover one: Lone Star Park. The same horses come back race after race, so we keep a memory of every horse that runs here: each race, how it finished, its time, its trend, its rider and its trainer. When a horse shows up again, its whole Lone Star history comes with it.

1. Speed, the Quarter Horse way

Quarter Horse races are won in seconds. For each past race we work out a speed index from the AQHA's Lone Star chart, comparing the time with the par for that distance and class. Recent races count most, and a horse that runs fast again and again counts for more than one lucky race.

2. Trip and track

Ideas from Andrew Beyer's classic book Picking Winners: a horse that had a bad trip last time gets credit for the ground it lost, and the day's track matters. Some nights the speed holds and some nights the closers come home. A horse taking a big drop in price right after a good race is a warning, not a gift.

3. Jockey and trainer

Who rides and who trains matters. We look at each jockey's wins at this meet and over the past year, how often the jockey and trainer win together, and whether the trainer switched to a better or weaker rider. A switch to a top rider can be a sign the stable is trying.

4. A real percentage chance

All of that goes into a chance model called a conditional logit, the same kind of model the well-known racing bettor Bill Benter wrote about. It gives every horse a percentage chance, and the chances in a race add up to 100%. The model's numbers were fitted on real Lone Star races and then tested on races it had never seen.

For exactas and trifectas we use Benter's fix to the usual math, which gives too much credit to favorites for 2nd and 3rd.

5. Value and the race rating

The most likely winner isn't always the best bet. We compare each horse's chance with its odds and point out when the odds pay more than the chance suggests. Every race also gets a rating from 1 to 4 stars. 4 stars means one horse stands out, and 1 star means it's a race to watch, not bet.

What a betting ticket looks like

In the app every race comes with WIN, PLACE and SHOW picks and the one play, plus exacta, trifecta, box and longshot ideas. Here is how a ticket can be built on three budgets. These are examples of the ticket shape, not picks:

• $10: $2 WIN, $2 PLACE and $2 SHOW on the top pick ($6), plus a $1 exacta box on the top two ($2) and a $2 SHOW on the longshot ($2).
• $25: $5 across the board on the top pick ($15), a $1 exacta box on the top three ($6) and a $0.50 trifecta box on the top three ($3), with $1 left over.
• $50: $10 WIN and $10 PLACE on the top pick ($20), a $2 exacta box on the top three ($12), a $0.50 trifecta box on the top four ($12) and $6 SHOW on the longshot ($6).

Work out any ticket with the bet cost calculator. Set a budget and stick to it.

Every pick on the record

We don't hide the losers. Every final pick goes on the public results page, win or lose. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. No system wins every time.

Good to know

Brian's Lucky Picks is a picks subscription for Lone Star Park, from Dallas–Fort Worth. Not affiliated with Lone Star Park or the AQHA. No bets are taken here. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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