How to Handicap Horse Racing

What handicapping means

Handicapping is studying a race to judge each horse's chance, then comparing that with the odds. The goal is not to find the horse that always wins. The goal is to find horses whose chance is better than the odds say.

How to handicap horse racing for beginners: 6 steps

1. Pick one race and read every horse's last 3 races in the program.
2. Speed: who has run fastest lately at this distance and surface?
3. Class: who is dropping down, who is moving up?
4. Pace: who wants the lead? A race with one front-runner is different from a race with five.
5. People: which riders and trainers are winning at this meet?
6. Price: compare your top choices with the odds. Bet only when the price is fair.

Is there a best horse racing handicapping system?

No system wins every time. The useful ones are simply the same steps every race, written down and checked against the results. Keep a notebook of every pick, win or lose. After 100 races you will know far more than any promise can tell you.

Horse handicapping software

Software helps with the boring part: collecting past races, speed figures and rider and trainer records, and turning them into chances. Brian's Lucky Picks uses its own program for Lone Star Park, then Brian makes the final call. Software is a tool, not a crystal ball.

How to become a horse racing handicapper

• Study one track. Lone Star Park's riders, trainers and post positions are easier to learn than every track at once.
• Watch the replays, not just the results. Trouble at the start or a wide trip explains many losses.
• Keep an honest record. Every pick, win or lose, with what $2 would have returned.
• Learn to say "pass". Skipping races you don't understand is part of the job.

Horse racing handicapping books

Two long-time classics are Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer, about speed figures, and Betting Thoroughbreds by Steven Davidowitz, a broad guide to reading races. Read them for the ideas, then test the ideas on your own records.

See it done every race day

Brian's Lucky Picks handicaps every Lone Star Park race and shows every final pick on the record, win or lose: the results. For Lone Star's short Quarter Horse races, see How to handicap Quarter Horses.

Questions