How to Pick a Racehorse

Start with the race, not the horse

Before you look at names, look at the race: the distance, the surface (dirt or turf), and the class (maiden, claiming, allowance or stakes). A horse that is great at 6 furlongs may be lost at a mile. A horse that just won against cheap claimers may struggle against better horses.

5 simple checks

• Recent form. How did it run in its last 2 or 3 races? Getting better is a good sign.
• Speed. Compare speed figures at today's distance. Faster recent numbers matter more than one old big race.
• Class. Is it dropping down to easier company, or moving up against tougher horses?
• Rider and trainer. Who is winning at this meet? A switch to a top rider can be a sign the stable is trying.
• The odds. The crowd is often right. A good horse at fair odds is the goal, not just the favorite.

How to pick a winner in horse racing: be honest about the odds

Even the favorite loses most races it runs in. In North America the betting favorite wins about one race in three. That is why picking the "most likely" horse is not enough; you also have to be paid enough when you are right. That idea is called value.

Is there a simple winning system for horse racing?

No system wins every time, and anyone who says theirs does is not being straight with you. A simple method does help: use the same checks every race, write down your picks, win or lose, and compare them with the results. Over time you learn which checks work for you.

How Brian picks

Brian's Lucky Picks runs the same checks on every Lone Star Park race with computer help: recent races, speed, distance, class, post, rider, trainer and the betting board. Then Brian makes the final call. Every final pick is on the record, win or lose: see the results. Picks are opinions, not guarantees.

Questions