How to Handicap Quarter Horses

What makes a Quarter Horse race different

Quarter Horses are sprinters. Their races are measured in yards, not furlongs, and most are over in 12 to 22 seconds. At Lone Star Park they usually run from 220 to 440 yards in a straight line, with a few longer races (550 and 870 yards) that go around a turn.

A race that short leaves no time to make up for a bad start. That changes what matters when you handicap.

1. The break from the gate

In a 300-yard race, a horse that comes out of the gate a step slow is often beaten before the race really starts. Look at each horse's past races for notes like bobbled, broke out, bumped or off slow. One bad break can be bad luck. Three in a row is a habit.

2. Post position and the lane

Every horse runs in its own lane on a straight course. Some lanes can be faster than others on a given night (the track surface, the wind, the rail). Watch the first few races of the night: if the winners keep coming from the same side, that may be a pattern for the rest of the card.

3. Speed index and times

Quarter Horse past performances usually show a speed index for each race: a number that compares the horse's time with the best times at that track and distance. Higher is faster. Compare horses at the same distance when you can. A horse that runs a big number at 400 yards may not run the same number at 250.

Look at the last two or three races, not just the best one. A horse that is getting faster race by race is often a better play than one living on a single big number from months ago.

4. Distance

Some horses are pure speed and fade late at 400 or 440 yards. Others need the longer distance to get going. Check the horse's record at tonight's distance. A first try at a new distance is a question mark.

5. Trials and finals

The big Quarter Horse races (futurities and derbies) are run as trials first. The fastest horses from the trials move on to the final. A horse's trial time tells you a lot about the final, because it ran against the same group under similar conditions. The Texas Classic Futurity on Lone Star's closing night is the best-known example.

6. Riders and trainers

At a meet this size, a handful of riders and trainers win a large share of the races. Note who is winning at this meet, not just in general. A rider switching onto a horse from a top barn can be a sign the stable thinks the horse is ready.

7. The odds board

The odds are the crowd's opinion. A horse at long odds that looks good on paper may be a value play. A heavy favorite with a history of slow starts may be a horse to beat. Most of the money is bet in the last few minutes before the race, so the odds keep moving until betting closes.

How Brian does it

Brian's Lucky Picks puts all of this into one sheet: the program reads every horse's past races, speed numbers, distance record, post, rider and trainer and the betting board, and Brian makes the final call. Every final pick goes on the record, win or lose. See every pick. More: Quarter Horse racing at Lone Star Park. Picks are opinions, not guarantees.

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